2026 Midterms · House & Senate
Only a few dozen races are polled at all, so Polls is counted without a target. FEC funding covers every race with a filed candidate.
Method 1 · Poisson-binomial, exact
Senate
Dem narrow favourite64%
Democrats win the majority
36%
Republicans win the majority
House
Dem clear favourite90%
Democrats win the majority
10%
Republicans win the majority
Method 2 · 10,000 simulated elections
Senate
Dem narrow favourite64%
Democrats win the majorityMethod 1: 64%
36%
Republicans win the majorityMethod 1: 36%
Share of runs ending at each number of Dem caucus seats. Blue bars are Democratic control, red bars Republican control.
House
Dem clear favourite90%
Democrats win the majorityMethod 1: 90%
10%
Republicans win the majorityMethod 1: 10%
Share of runs ending at each number of Democratic seats. Blue bars are Democratic control, red bars Republican control.
Both chambers together
From the same runs, so a bad night in one chamber is a bad night in the other. A 50–50 Senate counts as Republican control because the Vice President breaks ties.
35 races on the ballot (33 Class II plus the FL and OH specials) · Democrats need 51 because the GOP holds the vice presidency
Expected seats · mean of Method 1 & 2
51
Dem caucus
49
Republicans
Today: 47 – 53
Race call · seats led at 55% or more
52 Dem caucus · 1 tossup · 47 Republicans
Marker sits at 51 of 100 seats — the line for majority control.
All 435 seats on the ballot · 218 for a majority
Expected seats · mean of Method 1 & 2
240
Democrats
195
Republicans
Today: 215 – 219 · 1 independent
Race call · seats led at 55% or more
235 Democrats · 7 tossups · 193 Republicans
Marker sits at 218 of 435 seats — the line for majority control.
Races on the ballot · race call
Race call per seat. The fill follows the House delegation on the race call — a seat goes to the side at 55% or more, tossups to neither — and the Senate race is shown as its own mark, so the two chambers are never blended into one colour. Shading follows the expected-seat margin. The same call feeds the flip list and the projected swing; chamber totals and odds live in the cards above.
AL
1–6 · Sen R 91%
AK
0–1 · Sen D 66%
AZ
5–4
CO
5–2 +1 · Sen D 91%
FL
7–21 · Sen R 73%
GA
5–9 · Sen D 85%
IN
2–7
KS
1–3 · Sen D 52%
ME
1–0 +1 · Sen D 64%
MA
9–0 · Sen D 92%
MN
4–4 · Sen D 79%
NJ
10–2 · Sen D 91%
NC
5–9 · Sen D 84%
ND
0–1
OK
0–5 · Sen R 94%
PA
10–6 +1
SD
0–1 · Sen R 93%
TX
12–26 · Sen D 64%
WY
0–1 · Sen R 96%
CT
5–0
MO
2–6
WV
0–2 · Sen R 95%
IL
14–3 · Sen D 86%
NM
3–0 · Sen D 90%
AR
0–4 · Sen R 86%
CA
48–4
DE
1–0 · Sen D 91%
HI
2–0
IA
3–1 · Sen R 55%
KY
1–4 +1 · Sen R 86%
MD
7–1
MI
8–4 +1 · Sen D 67%
MS
1–3 · Sen R 81%
MT
1–1 · Sen R 91%
NH
2–0 · Sen D 81%
NY
20–6
OH
6–9 · Sen D 62%
OR
5–1 · Sen D 90%
TN
0–9 · Sen R 93%
UT
1–3
VA
8–3 · Sen D 89%
WA
8–2
WI
3–4 +1
NE
1–2 · Sen R 94%
SC
1–5 +1 · Sen R 67%
ID
0–2 · Sen R 92%
NV
3–1
VT
1–0
LA
1–5 · Sen R 84%
RI
2–0 · Sen D 91%
Projected seat flips
Democrats gain 31
Republicans gain 6
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US
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